Visualizing the Spread. 2024 Performance by Position
Box plots got me feeling NICEY
If you’re like me, you need visuals to comprehend anything. My wife will say something insane to me on a Wednesday morning like “remember to pick up your son tomorrow from daycare”. Ma’am, if you don’t put this on the calendar for me to visually see, I ain’t picking him up. How TF am I supposed to remember that? I’m not some elite Joe’s Crab Shack waiter that can take an order for a table of six purely on memory and only make two mistakes.
I see a lot of fantasy content like “Caleb Williams averaging 129 air yards over the past 3 weeks”. What am I supposed to do with that info without context? Is that good? Is it bad? Is he getting better? I don’t know - I can’t understand it.
One of my favorite fantasy charts analytical tools is the box plot. For each player, they have a box that will give you lots of helpful info at a glance. Here are the box plots for the top QBs. I’ll explain how to read below.
All of these plots are sorted left to right based on total 2024 points thru week 9. Players further left have scored more points than those further right. Lamar is #1 and Dak is #20. This is not inherent in box plots. I had to put in the work to make this sort happen.
The middle of the box. This is a players median score this year which we have labeled with that little number in the chart.
The top of the box. A player’s 75th percentile. In non-nerd terms, 25% of their games have been above this mark. A decent idea of what their upside is. These games are the ones that have fantasy GMs like:
If I have lost you at this point just go to TikTok or something and enjoy the rest of your morning deuce. We’ll see you later in the week.
For those of you still with us, keep hunkering down in there and shirking your other responsibilities. The shitter is YOU time! Extend it as long as possible.
The bottom of the box shows their worst 25%— the kind of performances that have some assistant coach in over their skis, scrambling to come up with something critical (yet not particularly helpful in any way) to say to QB1 so it seems like they are doing something.
“Uhh hey Jameis. We gotta cut down on those interceptions!” Thanks, Dom—so glad we brought you in.
This is also where fantasy GMs start whining about their players underscoring projections and questioning the value of projections and stats altogether. “OMG, ESPN said they’d get 19.4, and they only got 14.6! UGHHHHH! So annoying. Also, where is the sun? Chet from channel 8 said there was only a 40% chance of rain. Looks like 100% to me, Chet!”*
Top 20 QBs in 2024
Here is the QB chart again with some quick takeaways.
Lamar playing at an elite level this year. Going for that third MVP. He was perfect last Sunday against a stingy Broncos D for the FOURTH time in his career.
Courtesy of Yahoo Sports Baker having a huge year as well. He’s up in the Lamar class. Well at least adjacent to it.
Josh Allen with a large spread here. Dude is so erratic right now. Need him to just get me 25+ a game.
Kirk Cousins with a very low median, but if you are desperate and need a huge game, he may be your guy.
Top 20 RBs in 2024
King Henry like a pot of chili. Keeps getting better with age.
Saquon with a huge variation here. I ain’t seen a spread this wide since goatse.
Mixon is down on this list because of injuries but he is having a massive season. He is so GD pissed at the Bengals and I love it.
Kamara is still elite. Glad ESPN convinced me to drop him 2 years ago in my keeper league. I am very smart.
Top 20 WRs in 2024
Ja’Marr leading the pack here. Going to be a HUGE leap here after he dropped a 55 bagger on Thursday! Gonna really stretch out that y-axis.
JJ JET with a VERY tight distribution here. You know what to expect with him in any given week. “Davante Adams says Justin Jefferson is the best WR in the NFL besides himself”. Respect, Davante.
Godwin having a great year, much to the chagrin of Evans owners.
The Sun God with a ridiculous 19.6 point median for the year. Just waiting for a Detroit playoff run again.
Top 20 TEs in 2024
Much wider distributions from TEs on the whole.
We may be ushering in a new era of TEs. Lot of new guys emerging on the scene. I guess the Alge Crumpler & Jeremy Shockey days are gone. Nothing I love more than overhearing two middle-aged guys just spouting off old player names back and forth.
“Tim Biakabutuka. Cmon!” - guy #1
“Dude……Donald Driver.” - guy #2
"Guy…….BenJarvus. Green. Elliiiisssssss” - guy #3
Give us a holler or like if you want to see these charts deeper in the ranks!
*If you see us shitting on some hypothetical person, know it’s all self deprecation. Just full Joel Dahmen energy out here from the FG writing staff.
