Week 10 Recap: Chase Dominance
Jerry threatens to cut his butt off, Tytus Jones listens to the devil on his shoulder.
Welcome to the Week 10 recap! If you’re new here, we’re going to highlight a couple of silly things that happened in the NFL around the week and then give you some data insights and charts so that you never make a lineup mistake again.*
*As long as you follow my algorithm of putting in the player that is going to score more points that week.
Dumb NFL Stuff
Jerry Jones had what is perhaps the most insane overreaction to a benign question I have ever seen. When asked if he would consider putting up curtains in the stadium to prevent his star WR from being blinded while trying to do his job, he said “Well let’s tear the damn stadium down and build another one! Are you kidding me?!”
God help this man’s wife if she asks him to put the toilet seat down. He’d probably threaten to cut his own ass off.
My second favorite thing was Texans OL Tytus Jones going full Leeroy Jenkins on Sunday night. If you missed the play, while CJ Stroud was in the process of being sacked, the ball apparently called out to Tytus like the Green Goblin mask. He ripped the ball out of Stroud’s hands and decided “This play needs a little extra Tytus. I’m goin’ to the house.” Genuinely one of the worst cases of His Intrusive Thoughts Won I’ve seen in quite some time. Sound warning on the clip below
Sankey Time!
Our friends over at the r/fantasyfootball subreddit seem to get a kick out of our weekly sankey charts, so we’ll be posting the most interesting/heartbreaking ones here weekly as well. No surprise that this stack won 99% of their games. I cannot imagine being one of the 21. That may be a sign from the heavens that you need to pick up a new hobby.
For a bit of context, seeing a win rate for an individual player get above 90% is unheard of in our data. Only two players have gotten above EIGHTY percent in 2024. Nobody has done it since…Ja’Marr Chase in week 5. Kamara got up to 81% in week 2.
Player Charts - Start % vs. Fantasy Points by Week
Since we have data for a lot of teams, I like to look at trends on how the crowd reacts to particularly bad or good games from the previous week. Partially because it’s interesting and partially because it makes me feel better about my own managerial botch jobs. First up, Kyler Murray. Kyler had a horrific game (4.76 points) against a solid Bears passing defense in week 9. His start percentage dipped to 72%, the lowest it has been all year for him. And wouldn’t you know it…he turns in his best fantasy performance of the year in week 10.
Taysom Hill is always fun to look at on anything involving start rates, fantasy production, or general Chaos Factor. Fantasy mirrors real life in this way — he’s clearly got some talent but nobody can ever truly figure out what the hell to do with him. Enjoy this chart of managers gaining hope from week 9 to week 10 and all being let down. Let’s give credit where it’s due though — a lot of you had a good feeling about week 9 and fired him up. It’s always going to be a roller coaster with Taysom.
I have saved my favorite for last today, which is Xavier Worthy. If you look closely at the relationship between his points and start percentages, you’ll notice that start percentages track almost perfectly with the prior week’s performance.
Week 1: 60% start percentage, has a huge game. Fired up by 77% in week 2.
Week 2: Lays an egg. Start percentage drops 10 points for week 3.
Week 3: Lays another egg. Start percentage drops 15 points for week 4.
Week 4: Nice game on his lowest start % of the year. Start percentage skyrockets 28% for week 5.
And so on… This is the nature of fantasy football — we’re always going to be reacting to what we see on the field the previous week, but it’s still funny to look at this play out in the data and imagine all the managers getting pissed about unpredictability. Also, he broke my chart by going negative in week 9…
Best Team We Saw
We look through thousands of teams and do our best to navigate the nasty scoring settings you sickos have to try to pick out the cream of the crop. Look at this squad…could have been even better if Achane had his normal production last night. Sheesh. Let us know if you saw a better team than this from week 10!
Worst Team We Saw
We also have to look at the other side of the coin and this is just brutal. I don’t have anything to add other than sincere condolences to this poor soul.
Expert Leaderboard
On the Fantasy Genius website, we now have a Player Ranker tool where each week, you will rank 10 players in QB, RB, and WR slots (PPR scoring). When the week ends, we evaluate your picks and compare them to industry experts! The ultimate idea here is for there to be accountability in Fantasy Takes. Let’s get the data on the guy who is telling you to bench Kittle this week because of “a bad matchup”. Does he generally get this kind of stuff right? Or is he going all in on Xavier Worthy for his negative game?
The picks power a publicly accessible Expert Leaderboard where you can view picks from our experts as well as any other ranker for that week. Shoutout to the appropriately-named “george picken correctly” for nailing it this week and being our #1 Genius:
When you make picks, your name will show up next to all of the experts in our database — big winners this week were Eric Moody from ESPN in the 98th percentile and Dynasty Dad from the Smash Accept podcast. Let us know if you have any suggestions for who to add into our leaderboard!
That’s it for this week! All of our data is powered by our league sync tool which is the best in the business. And it’s Pay What You Want. Check out our demo league here! If you enjoyed this post, share it with nerds who you think might enjoy it. If you didn’t enjoy it, look inward…why can’t you find joy in life?
